News & thoughts on Putin's invasion of Ukraine

[ehusmann]

The official Russian and Ukrainian sources must be taken with a grain of salt. Without evidence it is hard to be sure. However, many of the Ukrainian claims have been verified. Not all, but I do not agree with the statement that there is probably footage of every kill. On the contrary I think. Especially night time losses or losses not near cities and towns will be hard to verify. Also take into account that not every crash results in a good wreck that can be easily found (note the link I posted some pages back of a Su-30 or Su-34 crash that only left some very small pieces of the plane in a farmer's field).

The 48 planes sounds plausible though, given the number of absolutely confirmed losses. The 80 helicopters can be plausible if the attack on that airfield near Kherson can be confirmed. The attack is confirmed, it is confirmed there were upwards of 45 helicopters at the field, there is just no evidence any of those were destroyed (let alone the claimed 30).

[Glidepath]

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[Starfighter_F-104G]

cnl

[ehusmann]

CONFIRMED lost with photo/video evidence available

Dude, drop the capitalized confirmed unless you are willing to back it up with links to the confirming sources and keep your list up to date here. Like this nobody can check, nobody can add. Any new picture could be one of your 'confirmed' or not.

Like this one, another shot down Su-25 (RF-91969). Same as the one you linked, or another? So do we have two confirmed now, or one? Sources say 4 Su-25s were shot down yesterday, but how many do you count as 'confirmed'?

https://twitter.com/XyKyiv/status/15018 ... 93/photo/4

[Wildpicture]

Last night there were attacks reported on Ivano-Frankivsk and Lutsk in western Ukrain. Attacks were most likely carried out with missiles. Both cities have a military airbase which was probably the main target. Russia seems to make a move to suppress flight activities by the Ukrainians in that part of the country. This makes operating for the remainder of the Ukrain air force difficult. But also renders any movement of possible MIG-29 supplies very difficult.

Together with the dispersion of the convoy north of Kiev into preliminary battle positions and the the approaching convoy from the north-east, this seems to indicate a large attack on the city of Kiev may be imminent. the attack will likely be similar to the one on Mariupol.

[michel N]

In Lutsk there was an attack at the Mig-29 engine overhaul facility

[hammarö]

According the Ukraina General Staff have Russia lost over 12000 soldiers, as 353 combat tanks, 1153 AFV, 83 helicopters and 57 aircraft in the war in Ukraine.

The last days lost Russia following aircraft in the war in Ukraine.

8 March 1 aircraft
9 March 0 aircraft
10 March 8 aircraft

The last days lost Russia following helicopters in the war in Ukraine.

8 March 1 helicopter
9 March 0 helicopter
10 March 2 helicopters

https://korrespondent.net/ukraine/44561 ... k-henshtab

[Slijfie]

Those high numbers of claimed aircraft reminds me of Serbian propaganda in 1999. While a large part of the Serbian air force was destroyed by NATO, the Serbs claimed to have downed around 70 NATO aircraft and helicopters. Even a B-2! The claims are still online for you to enjoy on a Russian website: https://en.topwar.ru/15180-poteri-nato- ... lavii.html. Scroll down for the list. We all know that almost all of this is BS. Only an F-16 from Aviano and an F-117 were shot down.

No doubt many Russian aircraft were shot down. But claiming that 'the ghost of kyiv' has shot down 49 Russian aircraft (source: Kyiv Post) is not doing any good.
Rob

[Gerard]

I saw a report that last night a Tupolev Tu-141 reconnaissance drone crashed in the middle of a park in the Croatian capital Zagreb. The drone most probably originated from Ukraine.
Did it cross NATO airspace unnoticed?

[Glidepath]

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[Stratofreighter]

I saw a report that last night a Tupolev Tu-141 reconnaissance drone crashed in the middle of a park in the Croatian capital Zagreb. The drone most probably originated from Ukraine.
Did it cross NATO airspace unnoticed?

...Tyler Rogoway wonders about the same:
https://scramble.nl/community/messageboard/5/162256

[hammarö]

According the nights corresponding notes on this side.

Reports of an airstrike on the village of Kopany inside Belarus near the Ukraine border, smoke seen rising.

Ukraine military claims it was done by Russian jets that had taken off from Dubrovytsia airbase as a false flag to bring Belarus into the war.

https://twitter.com/oplatsen

[Canberra TT.18]

As far as I know Belarus is fully involved, allowing Rusiia to operate missions/troops/aircraft/attacks etc.. from their soil.
So flash flag is bit odd, but if so, part of the internal propaganda campaign.

[ehusmann]

As far as I know Belarus is fully involved, allowing Rusiia to operate missions/troops/aircraft/attacks etc.. from their soil.
So flash flag is bit odd, but if so, part of the internal propaganda campaign.

They are. They also have hundreds or maybe thousands of troops on the ground in Ukraine already. You won't hear that though... because those are fighting AGAINST the Russians...

[ehusmann]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/statu ... Xamt1Jh-lA
13 Russian BTGs destroyed, 18 no longer combat capable. If true, that would be 31 out of about 120 deployed. Holy f*ck. In two weeks... No wonder the Russians need help from Assad's thugs.

But of course, comes from Ukrainian Intelligence. Wonder when the Americans publish their assessment.