Syrian Operation

[hammarö]

Something is going on for Syria, after last week chemical action.

It is time to recap the Libyan Operation 2011.

All reconnaissance accets high use. US, Russian, China, Israel satellites. RC-135, U-2S,

The air defence in area are strengthened. example Typhoons (10) to Akrotiri. The whole area involved Syria, Turkey, Israel, Saudi, unt zo weiter. All fighters and air defence are certainly mobilized.

At least 6 US destroyers in Med, some BMD (4), some further with cruise missiles. Plus destroyers with aircraft carriers.

Two US aircraft carriers in area with cruisers (3) and destroyers (at least 6). From beginning in Arabian Sea, may bee now in Red Sea or Med. (Nimits and Truman).

US destroyers in Arabian Sea, some with BMD (4) .

Unknown number of nuclear subs (at least 2) in Med. Further in Arabian Sea. In Libya were one Polaris used. All subs with cruise missiles.

Cooperation training between cruisers/ destroyers and F-15E/JSTARS performed.

LHA/LHD used as Search and rescue.

The Syrian air defence are during last years strengthened with Chinese air defence radars. They are placed north and central in country. Questions if the China have delivered further equipment.

[RogierV]

The Typhoons are said (by UK MoD) to be at Akrotiri for a regular three week training session. But no doubt US and British forces are increasing their presence in the area...

Can you list your sources for these numbers? Or is this just a guesstimate?

[hammarö]

One important source is the www.navy.mil.

The most of the other information is from the last numbers of Air Forces Monthly.

The www.aftonbladet.se has a informative map today. May bee not the most accurate. But it give a split vision.

And my own Military Forces guide from Internet.

[Flyboy]

As there is no air supremacy at present, the use of manned aircraft at the first strike seems unlikely to me (=opinion). Furthermore, given the political goal (punishing Assad) there is no clear target other than command & control + some military spots. The aim is not a regime change so the White house said earlier.

Totaly coincidentally rumours of S-300 (SA-10) arriving in Syria are also heared and these would be a mayor threat to Israel with their range of 200km. US and UK being the strong allies, it seems prudent to clear this threath which you can do prior to the S-300 becomming operational (=speculation) or by saturating the sky with cruise missiles in a one versus one shootdown. (= also speculation).

Both scenarios seem compatibel with the public show of force, To be honest, S-300's seem a more logical reason for a strike the the stil unproven use of gas by Assad.

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[hammarö]

Air defence (planes and missiles) can be used as defence of own bases and territory.

But as an option for strike in second phase.

To defeat Syrian air defence it needs at least 700 cruise missiles. Very is a lot of missiles.

No S-300 are reported yet in Syria. But in Russia were is some storage mobile S-300 bases ready to transport.

[Sud-Ouest]

Not to start a very long discussion here, but doesn't this thread belong in the Tattle lounge ?

There's not a single news related fact in this post, it's just guessing about the possible events that will follow in the coming days/ weeks...

Regards,

Jan

[ehusmann]

The aim is not a regime change so the White house said earlier.

Which is only to keep the Russians from interfering (at this point). In the end, regime change is the only possible succesfull outcome of any military operation in this case. Any other outcome will result in it being seen as 'useless' or 'failed'. As long as Assad will remain, nothing will change for the better in the country.

Erwin

[hammarö]

Two AWACS on RAF Akrotiri today, and a one C-130 moving.

Pictured today in Swedish 21.00 news with information.

Earlier is US AWACS mentioned for Incirlik airbase.

[hammarö]

"Panicked intercept calls" at heart of intelligence today in the New Zealand Herald.

United States intelligence services overhead a Syrian Defence Ministry official in "panicked phone calls with the leader of a chemical weapons unit" after last week´s deadly chemical attack, Foreign Policy magazine reports.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/ar ... d=11115948

Several other papers have the same information.

According the information is the Assad´s brother Maher commanding the 155th Brigade of the 4th Armored Division one of the tapped voices (read the information). The brigade blamed for last week´s attack on Ghouta.

One big problem is mobile stocks of WMD transporting in area.

Already from the begiining of the now 2,5 years conflict came information of moving intelligence units in area. (information on certain sources on Internet).

[hammarö]

USS Truman relieve today 2013.08.28 the USS Nimitz in 5 AOR (Arabian See).

www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=76231

[Coati]

here some real news (and not the rumors). So despite the so called sightings of last week, only this morning 6 Typhoons were deployed. They are from Coningsby, other reports indicated.

Syria Crisis: Ministry of Defence confirms RAF Typhoon jets have been deployed to Cyprus
Precautionary measures are taken as Labour warns it could still vote against the Government over Syria

Six RAF Typhoon jets have been deployed to Cyprus to protect British sovereign bases, the Ministry of Defence confirmed today.

The MoD said the jets are being dispatched to Akrotiri in Cyprus as a “prudent and precautionary measure”, adding that they are not being deployed to take part in a military strike against Syria.

A spokesman said: “We can confirm that as part of ongoing contingency planning, six RAF Typhoon interceptor fast jets are deploying this morning to Akrotiri in Cyprus.

“This is purely a prudent and precautionary measure to ensure the protection of UK interests and the defence of our sovereign base areas at a time of heightened tension in the wider region.

“This is a movement of defensive assets operating in an air-to-air role only. They are not deploying to take part in any military action against Syria."

The Typhoons have been sent out in a defensive counter air (DCA) role, the RAF said, and are fitted with advanced medium range air-to-air missiles (AMRAAM), advanced short range air-to-air missiles (ASRAAM), and a Mauser cannon for close combat.

Cyprus's sovereign base areas reportedly provide a “strategic forward mounting base” in a region important to the UK's long-term national security interests.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 89105.html

[hammarö]

You read your source with special goggles.

The source also mention two russian warships. A much interesting information.

Other sources (www.navy.mil) mention 4 US destroyers in the Med = 4 WMD destroyers with 90 VLS loaded with SAM missiles? Or cruise missiles? The Desron 60 in Rota air base were newly formed.

Eventual cruise missiles comes from Arabian See?? Over Iraq and Saudi?

[Coati]

You read your source with special goggles.

The source also mention two russian warships. A much interesting information.

Correct, I try to make a distinction between rumors (every military move is directly tied to the syria events by press, see the first message about "two pilots who see fighters on Akrotiri" and so called "sightings of fighters on radar" and news that is actually to be linked to the Syria operation. The Russian ships, first linked and then not linked in the same messages is no interesting news unless confirmed. So indeed special goggles, and not bluntly wild guessing. The Typhoon deployment is confirmed by the British MoD, while the Russian ship movement information is not.

[Stefan]

Let's also not forget that this is an aviation related forum. My estimate is that 90% of the users are only interested in aircraft related matters in this area.

[maurits]

RAF Tiffies are from XIsq.....