More and more troubling signs regarding developments in Ukraine
Portents regarding developments between Russia and Ukraine appear more and more. In recent days, according to what we have seen in open sources been a great upload with the Russian military units along the Ukrainian eastern border and in the Crimea. Ukraine, in turn, during the week mobilizing several units that left their peace bases, and there are plenty of videos on Youtube showing units from both sides in advance.
Earlier this week, Russia announced that it will conduct the biggest exercises of parachute units since the Wall fell. Most of these exercises are not too far from Ukraine. A small part of exercises in the Barents Sea region.
Yesterday it was reported that Russia at the invitation of President Lukashenko forward based more interceptors to Belarus in addition to the units already there to reinforce the Belarusian air defense. During the day came reports that Belarus had ordered an emergency drill with all of their air forces. Furthermore, also came reports that Russian strategic bombers launched a 24-hour patrol flight in the Barents Region.
What worries me most is the development yesterday in Donetsk where Ukrainian and pro-Russian activists clashed in riots, with fatalities. This prompted Russian Foreign Ministry to issue a communiqué that it reserves the right to protect their compatriots in Ukraine. Russian use proffesional provocers. Same Russian persons has been identified in Riga and Donetsk.
During the evening I noticed that the commercial aviation started avoiding eastern Ukraine. After a check of the NOTAM (notice to airmen) available for Ukraine, it appears that Ukraine since midnight Restricted airspace from the borders to the north, east and part of the Black Sea to a depth of about 150 km for all air traffic except Ukrainian State Air (ie military flights and flights from other agencies). I have plotted the coordinates in the NOTAM I got hold of as much as possible in the map below. The extension may well change over the next few days.
Map of Ukraine not shown here.
Unfortunately, this is a sign that they are preparing to use their air forces against non-Ukrainian air in the restricted area. By restricting the movement of other flights in the area increases the ability to detect and identify movements in the area. In turn, suggests scratching of airspace that Ukraine now feel that the risk of a Russian attack on the country increased, not unlikely after just last night's riots.
Apparently is not Crimea covered as restricted, probably for not seem provocative.
It will be interesting days to come, not least of which is the "elections" in the Crimea will be held on Sunday, which incidentally is the day of the Paralympics closing in Sochi.
The closed airspace extends, however, only to 1500 m, whatever that means. Nevertheless, it's obvious that Aeroflot's flights take a detour around the Ukraine.
One can also note a NOTAM about "rocket firings" in an area between the Crimea and Odessa from 15/3 to 20/3.
The implication is that for the moment right now is most concerned about helicopters and other low-flying units (attack airplane and cargo). The first step in a Russian operation against eastern Ukraine would be air landings.
Based on the now abandoned limitations, it is likely that detect and impede infiltration and to detect the first signs of a Russian attack.
Had it been about Crimea had included the area of the zone. Now, still open to all traffic.
It's very difficult to predict the evolution. All components available on site and associated subversion has increased substantially last few days in eastern Ukraine. During Sunday's big pro-Russian rallies are announced to take place in several cities. Depending on how they are treated, it may provide additional incentives to the invasion. It is difficult for Ukraine to act in this situation without escalating.
More interesting is how NATO should react if Russia chooses to begin a march. Have not seen any sign of increased readiness on some ground units.
Wiseman Wisdom
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