You are absolutely right from an "objective" point of view.
I may also add the fact that fast jet training is, until now (France decision to buy PC-21 may change it), carried out in France with the French air force, through a pool of training aircraft, should be in favour of a decision to buy the same combat aircraft.
But from a Belgian political point of view, the NVA political party, member of the government and in charge of the Defense department, is hostile to this so-called "french speaking" Rafale solution and may try to back a "Dutch connection solution" (F-35 is entering dutch service). The Government, at least on the Flamish speaking side (which holds the arithmetic political majority), is, following newspapers, said to favour the F-35. Dassault's CEO looks to ba aware of this (
http://www.levif.be/actualite/belgique/ ... 79691.html).
There are of course huge economic aspects : Dassault has close links with Sabca at Gosselies, which is a "plus" point for Rafale. But also a weakness as, once again, the NVA Nationalists may consider this as a political problem while Flamsh technological industry also has economic links with US aviation industry.
The rate of investments made in return (so-called "compensations") in Belgium may also be decisive but don't forget that here, Dassault has a poor reputation : Serge Dassault himself and some Belgian high ranking politicans have been sentenced in Brussels, in 1998, for corruption related to the modenization process of the F-16s through the Carapace ECM system. This corruption emerged through the economic compensation side of the deal.
I don not think that the fact that Belgium flew Mirage 5 until 1993 may weight a lot as, after those planes being bought, 45 years ago, Belgium anyway chose the F-16, not its competitor Mirage F-1, to replace F-104s. This decision, as far as I remember, was driven by the choice of NATO allied nations (The Nederlands, Denmark, Norway).
This time again, the fact that some NATO allies (The Nederlands, ...) chose the F-35 is often quoted in Belgium as an argument to do the same.
And finally Rafale (as Eurofighter) is a twin-engines jet aircraft while Belgium, since the begining of the 1960s, always favoured single-engine aircraft.
From an esthetic point of view, it is difficult to hide that I'd prefer Belgium to choose the Rafales. But who cares ?
F.