News & thoughts on Putin's invasion of Ukraine

[Glidepath]

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[hammarö]

According Ukrainan defence ministry have Russia lost from the beginning of the invasion until monday morning today 28th Feb 2022 (only air related):

29 combat aircraft
29 helicopters
UAV 3

191 tanks
816 APC/IFV
5300 soldiers
Railroad connextions with Russia has been destroyed, Many of them of aircraft. Difficult for Russia to transport supplies such as petrol. Some sources mention Su-24. Could also be the Turkish UAV.

https://korrespondent.net/ukraine/44524 ... hala-voiny

More and more satellite pictures shows a very impact of air related Russian losses, Both from aircraft, UAV and missiles. Last night was a 50 armor convoy destroyed.

I also followed the 2014-2015 war and the official Ukrainan information is the best in the long run.
After this terrible war it comes a discussion what really happened. Even on a spotter basis.

Ukraine tries to repair all aircraft they can. Every aircraft is important.

[Coati]

Footage showed up today of a shot down and completely wrecked/burned Russian Mi-35 at Kherson Oblast.

My take on the whole operation so far:
- Russia tried to make a lightning strike by taking out C&C and Air Force and Air defence at day one, and seizing the (supposedly) undefended Antonov Airport to set up an air bridge, to quickly capture the Kiev government district. They failed in all aspects, and the airborne assault ended up in a catastrophe, as well as a follow up (diverted?) airborne operation (where they might or might not lost 2 IL-76).
Because the operation did not go as planned, Russia needed to rely on a more conventional attack, but allowed Ukraine enough time to prepare for the attack. Poor planning, incompetence, poor logistics, over confidence and lack of air supremacy allowed Ukraine to hammer Russian troops and inflict a lot of damage and casualties.
Since air defence is still operational, we will read about more Russian losses mounting the next few days.
Ukraine source are the more reliable, Russian sources completely not. But without (verified) footage anything is in doubt till confirmed.
One thing is clear though: the 'Ghost of Kiev' story is completely made up.

[ehusmann]

Thank you ehusmann.

It is great with some support in this difficult time.
I felt directly that the information was right.
This is really aviation related topics.

As I sad before I have been a aircraft spotter now in over 50 yaers.

Your contributions are highly appreciated, Hammarö ! Please continue as much as possbile !

wkr.,
Remco

Amen to that. I don't mind additional info beyond aviation...

My take on the whole operation so far:
...
Poor planning, incompetence, poor logistics, over confidence and lack of air supremacy allowed Ukraine to hammer Russian troops and inflict a lot of damage and casualties.

With the usual restrain in making any hard statement, it seems even worse than this. Bellingcat is reporting that many (most?) Russian units are almost completly relying on open public communications. Military radios are not available or not working properly. Obviously, if true, it makes it very easy for Ukrainians to listen in.
Furthermore, there are already plenty of examples online of Russians running out of fuel in the middle of Ukraine. Apparantly one duo even decided to ask the local police for some fuel... yes... something that would be unbelievable if not accompanied with pictures.
In all, to me, it simply seems that the Russians have completely forgotten to secure their supply lines. The number of videos online of completely destroyed supply convoys is simply shocking. The 5000+ Russian casualties reported by the Ukrainian ministry of defence even seems like an undercount judging by the visual evidence online.
Russians also do not seem to operate at night, only shelling, but no or very little movement.
Somehow I get the feeling some foreign powers are regularly giving the Ukrainians some hints of locations of moving convoys...

[Coati]

Totally agree, Erwin! I tried to be cautious, but see what is unfolding like you do. A telling tale is the staggering losses in Russian supply trucks, air defence units and even artillery vehicles. These should be well protected in the rearguard. Losing those is a big red flag. Apparently Russia is even scrambling units to reinforce the invasion troops.

[Glidepath]

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[ehusmann]

The Russian combat troops that have entered Ukraine so far seems just like spearhead / ACV's of scout battalion (A/B) troops, NOT its main force.

One one hand it does, on the other, that makes completely no sense to me. If the commonly assumed strategy is correct of creating a fast invasion to quickly take at least Kiev and neutralize the government, than the first forces cannot have been scout units. In stead, you would assume these troops to be more like special forces. And if those could not have any success, then what about the next waves? Also, the sheer number of destroyed tanks do not look like scout battalions.
To me, it seems much more likely that the first assault was by the main force, but Putin and his 'advisors' just completely misjudged the level of resistance (and likely, the incompetence of their own forces). It is also telling that according to CNN reports in Belgorod (Russian side of the border), the roads there are littered with broken down Russian equipment. In other words, the state of the Russian army is such that part of the force couldn't even make it to the border!

But you are right, this will be a war of attrition unless Putin calls it quits. But by the looks of it, if the Russian forces cannot make a dent in the defenses by surprise, then how are they going to do it in the next weeks? I would not be surprised if throwing more forces into the battle will only result in more blown up tanks in Ukraine, especially with the hundreds of anti tank weapons now promised to the Ukrainians. Unless the Russians start to create a closed front and secure the covered ground, they will keep getting hit in their supply lines.

[Glidepath]

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[Coati]

We have seen self propelled guns, T-72/90 tanks, APC, MLRS, BUK, Pantsir, warships, basically the full VVS arsenal except strategic bombers. Definitely not scouts but a full army. They will of course send in more, but the initial force was nothing like a scout force.

[ehusmann]

EU buy combat aircraft to Ukraine.

This is fake news! No combat aircraft are provided, only Combat Air Patrol over Poland and Romania.

Although it may still go up in smoke, it seems at least Polish MiG-29s are going to be transferred to Ukraine:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/2 ... s-00012560
Article mentions that the first Ukrainian pilots have arrived in Poland to pick up the planes. 28 MiG-29s from Poland and 12 from Slovakia. Bulgaria was also originally included (for 16 MiG-29s and 14 Su-25s), but Bulgarian government shot that option down.

W'll see, doesn't seem to be fake news though...

And elsewhere (no source so far), it was mentioned that the US had already promissed replacing the Polish planes with more F-16s.

[hammarö]

According Ukrainan defence ministry have Russia lost from the beginning of the war until 1st March 2022 (only air related):

29 combat aircraft
29 helicopters
UAV 3

198 tanks
846 APC/IFV
198 Petrol tanks (for aviation and vehicle fuel)
3 air defence systems
5710 soldiers
Many vehicles have been leaved along Ukrainan roads (break down or lack of fuel)

Railway connextions with Russia has been destroyed, Difficult for Russia to transport supplies such as petrol. Some sources mention Su-24. Could also be the Turkish UCAV.

https://korrespondent.net/ukraine/44528 ... h-chelovek

More and more satellite pictures shows a very impact of air related Russian losses, Both from aircraft, UCAV and missiles. Last night was a 50 km armor convoy destroyed.

I also followed the 2014-2015 war and the official Ukrainan information is the best in the long run.
After this terrible war it comes a discussion what really happened. Even on a spotter basis.

Ukraine tries to repair all aircraft they can. Every aircraft is important.

[Glidepath]

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[hammarö]

Hello Glidepath

As you know have Scramble command objections about my information so I deleted the information to please the Scramble..

I have much more information.

Regards
Lars

[hammarö]

Today this morning blasted a missile on a central place in Kharkiv on a parking place. It only hit cars.
No military in sight.
Military advisers in Swedish media talk about a Iskander with bad precision.
Is it a Iskander could it also be a Kinzhal from a MiG-31.

A new level of the Russian air warfare is reached.

Until the 1st of March have Russia shot about 113 cruise missiles against Ukraine with bad precision, among them Kalibr.
Offical number yesterday.

Yesterday used Russia cluster bombs against populated areas in Kharkiv with only civilian goals. Now have the civilian dead reached 530 (United Nation source). Many of the victims comes from bombs/missiles aircraft related plafroms.

It could be Su-34. The cluster blasts looks the same as the blasts from cluster bombs in Syria used by Su-34. (and Su-24).

It is very near to Su-34 bases.

In Voronezh Baltimor air base is 24 Su-34 and in Morozovsk air base is 36 Su-34, not far from Ukraine.

I comes later to the spotting of aircraft in Baltimor and Morozovsk.

[ehusmann]

Interesting read about how the Russian Army is limited by its logistics. Apparantly, their current standstil was completely expected as it is about their operational range (until more logisitic support can be build up) and it also makes the Ukrainian effort to blow up all railway lines between Russia and Ukraine absolutely vital.
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feedi ... logistics/

Ukrainians should perhaps put all their effort into blowing up Russian trucks, easier and more effective in the long run.