News & thoughts on Putin's invasion of Ukraine

[K-9]

In the end...time will tell...

But i wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine ends up as another part of Russia in the end. Respect for those ukraine "warriors" for holding on so long.

[ehusmann]

I do not know what the thruth is to this video, but is mentioned as a train load of equipment near Rostov. If this indeed is the next load of supplies to the Russian forces....
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... CFxc6pj4iQ

[Coati]

Good article explaining Russian AF performance so far in the war:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... perations/

[ehusmann]

Good article explaining Russian AF performance so far in the war:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... perations/

Indeed, with every bit of info we see it shows the Russians are really either stuck in the past or stuck in corruption. Or both.
It just makes you wonder when an 'expert' talks about 'Mig-31BM'... cringeworthy...

I am still certain that the Russian Air Forces in area have at least 40 squadrons (combat aircraft) .

What's the normal strength of Russian units, 12, 24? And, how many would they normally be able to drag into a deployment. I would be surprised, given what the Russians are showing across the battlefield, that they could field the complete paper strength of the units. So if you are talking about 450 aircraft deployed, then it would come down to 11/12 per unit in case of 40 deployed units. Doesn't sound like a very weird assumption to me.

Many lessons are learned in this war... especially by NATO...

[Glidepath]

x

[orange]

It just makes you wonder when an 'expert' talks about 'Mig-31BM'... cringeworthy...

Why cringeworthy? A report from Zvezda news which surfaced this morning shows MiG-31s operating next to Su-25, Su-24MR and Su-34.

[hammarö]

A Russian squadron have 12 aircraft. A regiment have 2 squadrons plus eventual UB aircraft. Some regiments (very few) have 3 squadrons.

The Su-25 at Luninets air base, Byelorussia have 24 Su-25SM (two squadrons) and 6-8 Su-25UB. The unit was made up by aircraft from two bases, Vladivostok Cherrnigov and Chita Domna. One problem for the Russian units is to fill up after attrition. This means that the squadron decrease after crashed aircraft and aircraft during repair.

An US squadron is usually made up by 24 aircraft. And they have aircraft to fill up, or they are made up by some extra aircraft from beginning. US are very keen to hold toe aircraft as 24.

Russia dont fill up.

[ehusmann]

It just makes you wonder when an 'expert' talks about 'Mig-31BM'... cringeworthy...

Why cringeworthy? A report from Zvezda news which surfaced this morning shows MiG-31s operating next to Su-25, Su-24MR and Su-34.

Mig vs MiG

[hammarö]

I suspect Russia use MiG-31I and MiG-31K. Loaded with Kinzhal (Iskander variant). Shooting from Russian ground or Byelorussian ground.

Russia also use Tu-22M3, shooting from Russian ground or Byelorussian ground.

[Glidepath]

x

[Coati]

It is already unprecedented how much footage is available. And remember not everything can be filmed. In previous conflicts we almost never saw any footage or pictures of crashed aircraft. Might be some overclaims, but I think the losses are pretty close to the mark. Russians are flying in contested airspace, with an active integrated air defense system, often at low or medium altitudes. That is a pretty dangerous environment to do operations.

[ehusmann]

It is remarkable how much footage is available. Seeing that, the numbers the Ukrainians give each day seem close to the (possible) mark. Even the 11.000+ troops they report to have killed already seems likely. And if so, it is huge (in Afghanistan they lost about 15.000). Just today, I saw one video of a column of around 40 vehicles complete destroyed, plus an artillery battery of 8 howitzers blown up. Just those kinds of videos tell a story of unbelievable losses.
When it comes to the planes, at least half of those claimed to have been shot down can be confirmed with footage. That makes those numbers very likely (accept perhaps the two Il-76s, still no footage of any wreckage which makes it very dubious in my opinion).

[Coati]

And to put it in a time perspective: the 15,000 troops lost in Afghanistan was in 10 years time. This is 11,000, in 11 days…

[michel N]

Even if those 11.000 dead is exaggerated (which is likely), there are also a lot of wounded, captured or defected Russians. So the losses are huge in any way. Hopefully Russia can’t sustain these losses for too long, and will end this tragic war asap

[hammarö]

I look also at Russian spotting sites.

They have been closed now some days, and are back now.

The sites have been cleaned of information of Russian aircraft.

Only information oc Ukrainan aircraft are left.

This means that the big brother looking at us.