News & thoughts on Putin's invasion of Ukraine

[Key]

There is a split already, and it's here. If this stays too far off topic, i.e. a continuous discussion about whether to have a discussion or not, some posts will just be archived. Thanks for returning to English (Wildpicture as well).

Erik

[Key]

If this stays too far off topic, i.e. a continuous discussion about whether to have a discussion or not, some posts will just be archived.

... and right away that was what happened, with predictable result.

To get back on track, here is part of a video by Ward Caroll interviewing Justin Brink, that I highly recommend. With my limited knowledge of what MiG-29 deliveries or a no-fly zone would actually encompass, I found this very enlightening. As a side note, I think Ward's content is generally recommendable.

Cheers,
Erik

[ehusmann]

If you look at many reports of the Russian Army strength and capabilities, it often shows a total number of tanks for the Russians as around 12.000. I have always thought that was a rediculously high number and this article seems to confirm that. It is from last year and details the exact number of tanks per unit in the Russian Army. It concludes with a total of 2.609 tanks. A lot less than the 12.000 indeed. It does mention 240 more would be delivered in 2021, but it is not clear if that is additional or replacement. Probably a bit of both due to the fact the article also mentions 12 more tank battalions are to be formed (which would encompass between 350 and 500 tanks).

I wanted to know this, because the oryxspioenkop website already lists 249 Russian tanks confirmed as being lost. Including undocumented losses that would easily come to 10% of the real total of the Russian tank inventory. In three weeks!

Furthermore, looking at it from another angle, the Russians are said to have commited about 125 BTGs into the Ukraine war. Apparantly, each BTG normally has 10 tanks assigned (one company of 3 platoons plus the commander's tank). So that would be around 1.300 tanks, or half the Russian inventory. If so, they have lost 20% of their commited number of tanks already. And given that units rarely operate at 100% strength, it might be even higher percentage wise.

Here is also a Forbes article that tries to put a number to the losses. That article also states that the US Army takes 30% of losses as effectively destroying a BTG. With 1.300 tanks, that would be 390. The current losses are very much near that number...

To compare, in 10 years in Afghanistan, the Russians lost 147 tanks!

[ehusmann]

To get back on track, here is part of a video by Ward Caroll interviewing Justin Brink, that I highly recommend. With my limited knowledge of what MiG-29 deliveries or a no-fly zone would actually encompass, I found this very enlightening. As a side note, I think Ward's content is generally recommendable.

I couldn't agree more. The Ukrainians are in a position where they have the absolute right to ask for anything, but NATO has to be smart now. I always felt the MiG deal could be interesting, but his arguments are indeed rather compelling. The no-fly zone should indeed be a non-starter. That's just infeasible.

[Wildpicture]

Agree with you. Justin Brink has very well founded arguments on the subject. Of course instinctively you want to rush in and provide support. But it may backfire and have the opposite effect. Heart and mind don't always follow the same line of thought.

What could help is modifying the Polish MIG-29's a few at the time and sending them in (quietly), in small numbers as replenishment for the Ukrainian losses. What the Ukrainians need (besides anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons) is good up-to-date intel. Lets just hope that all the US and NATO EW aircraft flying up and down the Ukrainian border not only gather intel but use that intel to provide the Ukrainians with very precise up to date intel on Russian movements on the ground and in the air.

[ehusmann]

Lets just hope that all the US and NATO EW aircraft flying up and down the Ukrainian border not only gather intel but use that intel to provide the Ukrainians with very precise up to date intel on Russian movements on the ground and in the air.

There have been multiple reports over the past weeks that that is indeed happening. That the Ukrainians are getting direct, live, actionable inelligence. To what extend will hopefully be known after the war.

[ehusmann]

Two tweets with, probably, some more accurate casualty figures of the Russians.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/ ... 7371621379
An intercept from the Russian MoD states 17.265 Russians killed (including 4.451 from Wagner) (March 18)

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1505972650786672648
Komsomolskaya Pravda published number from the Russian MoD saying it is 9.861 killed plus 16.153 wounded.

Seems like the Ukrainian figures (which now say 15.000 killed) are not even that much overstated. Either way, 10.000 in less than a month. In Afghanistan it was 15.000 in 10 years!

[Stratofreighter]

...perhaps of interest:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraines-out ... 02753.html

The New York Times

How Ukraine's Outgunned Air Force Is Fighting Back Against Russian Jets

Maria Varenikova and Andrew E. Kramer

Tue, March 22, 2022, 6:56 PM·7 min read

Nearly a month into the fighting,
one of the biggest surprises of the war in Ukraine is Russia’s failure to defeat the Ukrainian air force.

Military analysts had expected Russian forces to quickly destroy or paralyze Ukraine’s air defenses and military aircraft,
yet neither has happened.

Instead, "Top Gun"-style aerial dogfights, rare in modern warfare, are now raging above the country.

The Ukrainian air force is operating in near total secrecy.
Its fighter jets can fly from air strips in western Ukraine,
airports that have been bombed yet retain enough runway for takeoffs or landings
— or even from highways, analysts say.

They are vastly outnumbered:
Russia is believed to fly about 200 sorties per day while Ukraine flies five to 10.

“Ukraine has been effective in the sky because we operate on our own land,”
said Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian air force.

“The enemy flying into our airspace is flying into the zone of our air defense systems.”
He described the strategy as luring Russian planes into air defense traps.

Dave Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies
and principal attack planner for the Desert Storm air campaign in Iraq,
said the impressive performance of the Ukrainian pilots had helped counter their disadvantages in numbers.

He said Ukraine now has roughly 55 operational fighter jets,
a number that is dwindling from shoot-downs and mechanical failures,
as Ukrainian pilots are “stressing them to max performance.”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraines-out ... 02753.html

[ehusmann]

Interesting predictions by not the least of all political scientists, Francis Fukuyama:
https://www.americanpurpose.com/article ... or-defeat/

To quote his point 2 from three weeks ago:

The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.

And that seems to be happening right now. It seems the Russian Army around Kyiv is rapidly retreating now. Dozens of villages liberated if the reports are true. Of course the Russians call it 'objectives fulfilled', but reality is probably more like Fukuyama described. Just an utter and total collapse of the Army in that sector.

Other estimates in mid March were that the war might be over before May (even April 10). If the Russian Army is as collapsing as it seems, this might also come true...

[pluggie]

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[Rabbit]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1 ... CiMNj8HNVQ

———

If this is even half true,
Russia faces quite a challenge. If they can't bring Ukraine to its knees with this commitment, how to prevent rebellion in other regions with ambitions to become independent from Russia? An army that apparently "can't do anything" and is unable to maintain control is not to be taken seriously.

[ehusmann]

I think the big question is now what will happen in Donbas. If the Russian Army fails there as well, then you might well see other frozen conflicts all of sudden be resolved with brute force. Georgia, Azerbeidjan, Moldova, perhaps even Belarus. No better time to kick those Russians out then when they are completely bogged down in a lost war.

[ehusmann]

New apparant leaked casualty figures from Russia:
Russian forces: 17.549
PMC (mercenaries & Donbas fighters?): 5.366
Total: 22.915
https://twitter.com/AvakovArsen/status/ ... TvsngOBYXQ

No idea how accurate this is, as in, if indeed leaked from the Russian MoD. But if true, the numbers are really starting to be staggering. If killed to wounded ratio is 1:3 as often assumed, it would mean also 60.000 wounded. Oryxspioenkop meanwhile has already documented almost 2.300 vehicles lost by the Russians. And that probably does not include the massive amounts of new wrecks discovered today around Kyiv.

[ehusmann]

Seen those pictures/videos of 250+ Ukrainian Marines surrendering in Mariupol yesterday?
Well... maybe not:
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status ... 20/photo/1

[pluggie]

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