News & thoughts on Putin's invasion of Ukraine

[ehusmann]

Interesting observation by Col(ret) Alexander Vindman (remember him?).
https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/151 ... T-UyEi25xg
(short, not enough Russian troops to run their expected offensive in the Donbas)

Also, no link for now, but apparantly US intelligence estimates that 37 or 38 BTGs have been rendered out of the fight. And Oryx has already found some 470 lost Russian tanks. That's out of a probable 1300 initially deployed for the invasion. It would not be surprising if the Russian have lost already half or more of their initially deployed tanks. Crazy...

[ehusmann]

We've already seen Ukrainian missile attacks on an airfield in Russia. We've also seen already a Ukrainian air attack with two Mi-24 gunships on a oil supply in Russia. But now this, seemingly evidence of sabotage in Russia. A railway line was blown up near Belgorod. Ukrainian special forces at work? Locals who are fed up with the war? "Self sabotage by the Russians"?
Either way, sounds like good news!
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... GS5dS8uyRw

[pluggie]

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[ehusmann]

In numbers perhaps, not in strength. Those are untrained recruits, walking on sneakers, with WWII helmets and even older rifles (no joke).
https://www.thedailybeast.com/donbas-co ... king-water

Here is a tweet about the BTGs by the way: https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/ ... prxUfBpbDQ

[pluggie]

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[ehusmann]

The real harsh reality is that it was not those new 30BTG of new recruits that made Mariupol fall (if indeed it has fallen). These new recruits are cannon fodder. They are very unlikely to have a major impact on the war, other then prolonging it and increasing the death toll. Untrained, poorly equiped, low morale and still in way too low numbers. Who will win, I don't know. But I am pretty sure that if it will depend on these kinds of troops than it will be the Ukrainians.

[pluggie]

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[Fishbed_9307]

The real harsh reality is that it was not those new 30BTG of new recruits that made Mariupol fall (if indeed it has fallen). These new recruits are cannon fodder. They are very unlikely to have a major impact on the war, other then prolonging it and increasing the death toll. Untrained, poorly equiped, low morale and still in way too low numbers. Who will win, I don't know. But I am pretty sure that if it will depend on these kinds of troops than it will be the Ukrainians.

As this is more and more a war of attrition every enemy soldier, poorly trained or not, on sneakers and with ancient guns, requires Ukrainian bullets, RPG’s, ATGM’s and troops to be destroyed. Also cannon fodder can be useful.

[ehusmann]

No doubt he'll spin it as some sort of victory, but Putin has ordered NOT to storm the last remaining part of Mariupol in Ukrainian hands. So after Kyiv, the Russians also cannot take Mariupol. Sure, they flattened it, but no total victory. And their troops will remain tied up there for the time being.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/relentless-a ... 56526.html

But he, everything is going to plan... in this three day war that is now two months old.

And those '30BTG' of local conscripts. They are lucky if they got 10.000 new troops.

Here is another very interesting (long) read about one US Army general's views on the development of the Russian and Ukrainian armies since the end of the Cold War. He himself explicitely states that it should not be taken as a explanatory piece about what is (or might be) happening on the groung, yet it does some insight into how one army apparantly got better than the other.
https://www.thebulwark.com/i-commanded- ... an-armies/

[ehusmann]

More leaked Russian casualty figures. Readovka for a short while listed 13.414 Russian soldiers killed, 7.000 missing. Keep in mind, this does not include non Russian Army troops like the separatists (estimated 3.000 to 6.000), Chechens (several 100), mercenaries (Bellincat estimates it at 3.000) and Ministry of Interior troops. The 7.000 missing fits the Ukrainian claim that they have about 7.000 Russian unclaimed bodies in refrigeration (or now in graves). Yesterday the Ukrainians claimed 21.000 Russians killed so far, that seems eerily correct. Or, if all the other estimates come close to reality, an undercount.
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/statu ... CBBKD0ECWg

But, luckily, everything is still going according to plan of course...

[ehusmann]

And just another dig at the Russian Army. With all their known problems, you would expect that at least the one thing they are built around should be really good: artillery. The Russian Army is a heavy weapons, artillery based army. As can actually be seen by the total destruction they have left in their wake in Chechnia, Georgia, Syria and now as well Ukraine. But, even at that they are not impressively good it seems:
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... 2791805953

In short, their shells are aged, unreliable now and they are using an older type of fuze, not airburst fuzes which have much better effect on trenches and infantry. What they are using is great to flatten a city, not so great to break down a well entrenched enemy. Something they did not encounter in the previous wars, but something they are going to find out the coming days in the Donbas. I am having a feeling the Russians are going to have a lot more losses between now and the 9th of May... and nothing that comes close to the victory Putin demands.

[patrick dirksen]

Let's hope you are right with that last remark!
(Not that I want Russians dead, apart from those war criminals, but no victory for Putin sounds very very good!!)

[ehusmann]

In my opinion he has already lost the war, he just cannot come to admit it. But, of course, the battle is still raging.
It has been what, 2 weeks now since the Russians announced their full blown Donbas offensive? How much ground have they conquered since? It rather seems completely stalled and the Ukrainians are starting counter attacks.
If some of the chatter is correct (big if), a Ukrainian offensive might be coming soon from Kherson towards Crimea. If that indeed would happen (and be successful), a Ukrainian victory on the 9th of May would be more likely than a Russian...

But that might be a little too optimistic.

Some numbers though:
- The Russians had about 2600 tanks before the war. Ukraine says they took more than a 1000 out, some 600 have been confirmed. That's 25% or more!
- According to UK/US intelligence the Russians might have spent already half their inventory of missiles in the war, and very likely have limited ability to replenish their stocks
- The Ukrainians estimate the number of Russian personel losses at 23.000, some Russian apparantly in an intercepted phone call mentioned 26.000. Exact number is difficult, but likely above 20.000. Much, much more in two months than 10 years Afghanistan.

I read a lot about this perhaps becoming a very long war. With Putin perhaps declaring it a war and calling general mobilization. Could be, but that is not going to change the fact the Russians are running out of weapons and serious amunition. Two more months of this intensity and the Russian Army is pretty much gone. I seriously cannot imagine this taking much longer, but rather that once the Western weapons arrive in large numbers (especially the artillery) that the Russian Army will collapse pretty quickly and pretty catastrophically.

But, we will see. So far it has been a complete embarressment for the Russians.

[Rabbit]

In my opinion he has already lost the war, he just cannot come to admit it. But, of course, the battle is still raging.
It has been what, 2 weeks now since the Russians announced their full blown Donbas offensive? How much ground have they conquered since? It rather seems completely stalled and the Ukrainians are starting counter attacks.
If some of the chatter is correct (big if), a Ukrainian offensive might be coming soon from Kherson towards Crimea. If that indeed would happen (and be successful), a Ukrainian victory on the 9th of May would be more likely than a Russian...

But that might be a little too optimistic.

Some numbers though:
- The Russians had about 2600 tanks before the war. Ukraine says they took more than a 1000 out, some 600 have been confirmed. That's 25% or more!
- According to UK/US intelligence the Russians might have spent already half their inventory of missiles in the war, and very likely have limited ability to replenish their stocks
- The Ukrainians estimate the number of Russian personel losses at 23.000, some Russian apparantly in an intercepted phone call mentioned 26.000. Exact number is difficult, but likely above 20.000. Much, much more in two months than 10 years Afghanistan.

I read a lot about this perhaps becoming a very long war. With Putin perhaps declaring it a war and calling general mobilization. Could be, but that is not going to change the fact the Russians are running out of weapons and serious amunition. Two more months of this intensity and the Russian Army is pretty much gone. I seriously cannot imagine this taking much longer, but rather that once the Western weapons arrive in large numbers (especially the artillery) that the Russian Army will collapse pretty quickly and pretty catastrophically.

But, we will see. So far it has been a complete embarressment for the Russians.

Your analysis seems fairly correct to me, but that is also where the danger lies. Putin also makes this analysis and, in private, I don't think he can draw any other conclusions. And the man is a total idiot, a crazy madman, so I think the main question is what he will do with these conclusions. and let's make no bones about it, he is not the man to apply some self-reflection and/or throw in the towel.

[ehusmann]

Putin also makes this analysis and, in private, I don't think he can draw any other conclusions. And the man is a total idiot, a crazy madman, so I think the main question is what he will do with these conclusions. and let's make no bones about it, he is not the man to apply some self-reflection and/or throw in the towel.

Unfortunately, I agree. I fear he will not be able to accept defeat indeed. The best option of course would be that someone in Russia sees that and takes action (eliminate Putin, one way or the other). Not unheard of in Russia, far from it. However, it is difficult to say if that can happen this time.

But if he stays...